Prediction of Climate Change Effect on Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Arid Region

Mohamed Elhadi Matallah, Waqas Ahmed Mahar, Mushk Bughio, Djamel Alkama, Atef Ahriz and Soumia Bouzaher
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Mohamed Elhadi Matallah: Laboratory of Design and Modelling of Architectural and Urban Forms and Ambiances (LACOMOFA), Department of Architecture, University of Biskra, Biskra 07000, Algeria
Waqas Ahmed Mahar: Sustainable Building Design (SBD) Lab, Department of UEE, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Université de Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Mushk Bughio: Department of Architecture, College of Engineering, SungKyunKwan University, Suwon 16419, Korea
Djamel Alkama: Department of Architecture, University of Guelma, Guelma 24000, Algeria
Atef Ahriz: Department of Architecture, University of Tebessa, Constantine Road, Tebessa 12000, Algeria
Soumia Bouzaher: Department of Architecture, University of Biskra, Biskra 07000, Algeria

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 16, 1-26

Abstract: Climate change and expected weather patterns in the long-term threaten the livelihood inside oases settlements in arid lands, particularly under the recurring heat waves during the harsh months. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the outdoor thermal comfort within a multifamily housing neighborhood that is considered the most common residential archetype in Algerian Sahara, under extreme weather conditions in the summer season, in the long-term. It focuses on assessing the outdoor thermal comfort in the long-term, based on the Perceived Temperature index (PT), using simulation software ENVI-met and calculation model RayMan. Three different stations in situ were conducted and combined with TMY weather datasets for 2020 and the IPCC future projections: A1B, A2, B1 for 2050, and 2080. The results are performed from two different perspectives: to investigate how heat stress evolution undergoes climate change from 2020 till 2080; and for the development of a mathematical algorithm to predict the outdoor thermal comfort values in short-term, medium-term and long-term durations. The results indicate a gradual increase in PT index values, starting from 2020 and progressively elevated to 2080 during the summer season, which refers to an extreme thermal heat-stress level with differences in PT index averages between 2020 and 2050 (+5.9 °C), and 2080 (+7.7 °C), meaning no comfortable thermal stress zone expected during 2080. This study gives urban climate researchers, architects, designers and urban planners several insights into predicted climate circumstances and their impacts on outdoor thermal comfort for the long-term under extreme weather conditions, in order to take preventive measures for the cities’ planning in the arid regions.

Keywords: residential sector; desert region; IPCC scenarios; urban climate prediction; Perceived Temperature; algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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