Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry

Stanisław Tokarski, Małgorzata Magdziarczyk and Adam Smoliński
Additional contact information
Stanisław Tokarski: Central Mining Institute, Plac Gwarków 1, 40-166 Katowice, Poland
Małgorzata Magdziarczyk: Department of Economics, Finance, Regional and International Research, Opole University of Technology, ul. Luboszycka 7, 45-036 Opole, Poland
Adam Smoliński: Central Mining Institute, Plac Gwarków 1, 40-166 Katowice, Poland

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 16, 1-10

Abstract: The introduction of the Green Deal in 2019 by the European Commission poses a significant challenge for EU member states whose power generation is based primarily on fossil fuels. In Poland, nearly 80% of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels. This paper presents an analysis of the risks related to the delays in the accomplishment of investment programs in the Polish power industry. Three scenarios were prepared for balancing the deficiency of about 3 GW of power and 20 TWh of electricity in the national power grid in the years 2031–2040, which may emerge as a result of the delayed accomplishment of investment programs, particularly in nuclear energy. The first scenario presents a variant entailing the rapid phasing out of coal and the replacement of the decommissioned power units with new gas-powered units, where the missing power volume would be partially balanced by import, and partially through gas-based production in the new power units. The second scenario assumes that the missing power would be balanced by retaining the existing, older coal-powered units, whereas the required electricity would be compensated by import. The third scenario involves the production of the missing volume of electricity using coal with CO 2 capture in existing or new coal-powered units.

Keywords: energy policy; forecast; just transition; risk analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/16/5210/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/16/5210/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:16:p:5210-:d:620068

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().