Bass Diffusion Model Adaptation Considering Public Policies to Improve Electric Vehicle Sales—A Brazilian Case Study

Leonardo Bitencourt, Tiago Abud, Rachel Santos and Bruno Borba
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Leonardo Bitencourt: Electrical Energy Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora (UFJF), Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Brazil
Tiago Abud: Electrical Engineering Department, Federal Fluminense University (UFF), Niteroi 24210-240, Brazil
Rachel Santos: Electrical Engineering Department, Federal Fluminense University (UFF), Niteroi 24210-240, Brazil
Bruno Borba: Electrical Engineering Department, Federal Fluminense University (UFF), Niteroi 24210-240, Brazil

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 17, 1-19

Abstract: The global fleet of electric vehicles (EV) has been rising in recent years, and public policies can play an important role in this scene. The objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of public policies in the diffusion of EVs in Brazil, based on Beck’s adaptation for the Bass diffusion model. This modification on the Bass model allows the estimation of EV diffusion, taking into account the direct and indirect economic influence of the main EV incentive instruments used worldwide. In addition, this work conducts a forecast of the total passenger cars in Brazil through a regression model, considering macroeconomic and social indicators. The results indicate that EV high prices may still be the major barrier for EV diffusion in Brazil over the studied horizon, keeping them inaccessible to the majority of the population. Therefore, policies aimed at subsidizing EVs may be more effective in stimulating EV sales.

Keywords: electric vehicles adoption; Bass diffusion model; public policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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