Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models

Palanisamy Manigandan, Shabbir Alam Md, Majed Alharthi, Uzma Khan, Kuppusamy Alagirisamy, Duraisamy Pachiyappan and Abdul Rehman ()
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Palanisamy Manigandan: Department of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem P.O. Box 636011, Tamil Nadu, India
Shabbir Alam Md: Department of Economics & Finance, College of Business Administration, University of Bahrain, Zallaq P.O. Box 2038, Bahrain
Majed Alharthi: Finance Department, College of Business, King Abdulaziz University, Rabigh 21911, Saudi Arabia
Uzma Khan: Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia
Kuppusamy Alagirisamy: Department of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem P.O. Box 636011, Tamil Nadu, India
Duraisamy Pachiyappan: Department of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem P.O. Box 636011, Tamil Nadu, India

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 19, 1-17

Abstract: Research on forecasting the seasonality and growth trend of natural gas (NG) production and consumption will help organize an analysis base for NG inspection and development, social issues, and allow industrials elements to operate effectively and reduce economic issues. In this situation, we handle a comparison structure on the application of different models in monthly NG production and consumption forecasting using the cross-correlation function and then analyze the association between exogenous variables. Moreover, the SARIMA-X model is tested for US monthly NG production and consumption prediction via the proposed method for the first time in the literature review in this study. The performance of that model has been compared with SARIMA ( p , d , q ) * ( P , D , Q ) s . The results from RMSE and MAPE indicate that the superiority of the best model. By applying this method, the US monthly NG production and consumption is forecast until 2025. The success of the proposed method allows the use of seasonality patterns. If this seasonal approach continues, the United States’ NG production (16%) and consumption (24%) are expected to increase by 2025. The results of this study provide effective information for decision-makers on NG production and consumption to be credible and to determine energy planning and future sustainable energy policies.

Keywords: SARIMA; SARIMAX; natural gas production and consumption; forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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