Improving Forecast Reliability for Geographically Distributed Photovoltaic Generations

Daisuke Kodaira, Kazuki Tsukazaki, Taiki Kure and Junji Kondoh
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Daisuke Kodaira: Department of Electrical Engineering, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, 2641 Yamazaki, Noda 278-8510, Chiba, Japan
Kazuki Tsukazaki: Department of Electrical Engineering, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, 2641 Yamazaki, Noda 278-8510, Chiba, Japan
Taiki Kure: Department of Electrical Engineering, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, 2641 Yamazaki, Noda 278-8510, Chiba, Japan
Junji Kondoh: Department of Electrical Engineering, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, 2641 Yamazaki, Noda 278-8510, Chiba, Japan

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 21, 1-15

Abstract: Photovoltaic (PV) generation is potentially uncertain. Probabilistic PV generation forecasting methods have been proposed with prediction intervals (PIs) to evaluate the uncertainty quantitively. However, few studies have applied PIs to geographically distributed PVs in a specific area. In this study, a two-step probabilistic forecast scheme is proposed for geographically distributed PV generation forecasting. Each step of the proposed scheme adopts ensemble forecasting based on three different machine-learning methods. When individual PV generation is forecasted, the proposed scheme utilizes surrounding PVs’ past data to train the ensemble forecasting model. In this case study, the proposed scheme was compared with conventional non-multistep forecasting. The proposed scheme improved the reliability of the PIs and deterministic PV forecasting results through 30 days of continuous operation with real data in Japan.

Keywords: photovoltaic generation forecast; probabilistic forecast; prediction interval; ensemble forecast; day ahead forecasting; multiple PV forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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