Towards Climate Neutrality in Poland by 2050: Assessment of Policy Implications in the Farm Sector

Adam Wąs, Vitaliy Krupin, Paweł Kobus, Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, Robert Jeszke and Krystian Szczepański
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Adam Wąs: National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Institute of Environmental Protection—National Research Institute, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland
Paweł Kobus: National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Institute of Environmental Protection—National Research Institute, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland
Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks: National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Institute of Environmental Protection—National Research Institute, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland
Robert Jeszke: National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Institute of Environmental Protection—National Research Institute, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland
Krystian Szczepański: Institute of Environmental Protection—National Research Institute (IEP-NRI), 5/11D Krucza Str., 00-548 Warsaw, Poland

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 22, 1-25

Abstract: Climate neutrality achievement in the European Union assumes the necessity of efforts and transformations in most economic sectors of its member-states. The farm sector in Poland, being the second largest contributor to the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and in the top fifth of farm sectors in the EU-27 countries, needs to undergo structural and technological transformations to contribute to the climate action goals. The article assesses the potential impacts of Poland’s climate neutrality achievement path on the domestic farm sector in terms of its structure, output, income, and prices of agricultural products. The approach is based on complex economic modelling combining computable general equilibrium (CGE) and optimisation modelling, with the farm sector model consisting of farm, structural, and market modules. While the modelling results cover three GHG emission-reduction scenarios up to 2050, to understand the transformation impact within varying policy approaches, the study for each scenario of farm sector development also outlines three policy options: carbon pricing, forced emission limit, and carbon subsidies. Results in all scenarios and policy options indicate a strong foreseeable impact on agricultural output and prices (mainly livestock production), shifts in the production structure toward crops, as well as changes in farm income along the analysed timeframe.

Keywords: climate change; climate neutrality; greenhouse gas; emission; carbon price; farm; agriculture; income; modelling; Poland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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