Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System

Stefan N. Petrović, Oleksandr Diachuk, Roman Podolets, Andrii Semeniuk, Fabian Bühler, Rune Grandal, Mourad Boucenna and Olexandr Balyk
Additional contact information
Stefan N. Petrović: Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark
Oleksandr Diachuk: Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine
Roman Podolets: Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine
Andrii Semeniuk: Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine
Fabian Bühler: Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark
Rune Grandal: Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark
Mourad Boucenna: Centre for Global Cooperation, The Danish Energy Agency, DK-1577 Copenhagen, Denmark
Olexandr Balyk: MaREI, The SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, T23 XE10 Cork, Ireland

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 22, 1-20

Abstract: This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term development of the Ukrainian energy system. This study utilises the TIMES-Ukraine model of the whole Ukrainian energy system to address this knowledge gap and to analyse how the energy system may develop until 2050, taking into current and future policies. The results show the development of the Ukrainian energy system based on energy efficiency improvements, electrification and renewable energy. The share of renewables in electricity production is predicted to reach between 45% and 57% in 2050 in the main scenarios with moderate emission reduction ambitions and ~80% in the ambitious alternative scenarios. The cost-optimal solution includes reduction of space heating demand in buildings by 20% in frozen policy and 70% in other scenarios, while electrification of industries leads to reductions in energy intensity of 26–36% in all scenarios except frozen policy. Energy efficiency improvements and emission reductions in the transport sector are achieved through increased use of electricity from 2020 in all scenarios except frozen policy, reaching 40–51% in 2050. The stated policies present a cost-efficient alternative for keeping Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions at today’s level.

Keywords: energy systems modelling; scenario analysis; TIMES-Ukraine; decarbonisation; paris agreement; electrification; renewable energy; energy efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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