Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation

Marcos Tadeu Barros de Oliveira, Patrícia de Sousa Oliveira Silva, Elisa Oliveira, André Luís Marques Marcato and Giovani Santiago Junqueira
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Marcos Tadeu Barros de Oliveira: Electrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Brazil
Patrícia de Sousa Oliveira Silva: Electrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Brazil
Elisa Oliveira: Electrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Brazil
André Luís Marques Marcato: Electrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Brazil
Giovani Santiago Junqueira: Santo Antônio Energia, Porto Velho 78900-000, Brazil

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 24, 1-18

Abstract: The present work proposes a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to obtain availability projections for Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPP), based mainly on regulatory aspects involving the Availability Factor (AFA). The main purpose of the simulation is to generate scenarios to obtain statistics for risk analysis and decision-making in relation to the HPP. The proposed methodology consists of two steps, firstly, the optimization of the maintenance schedule of the hydroelectric plant is carried out, in order to allocate the mandatory maintenance in the simulation horizon. Then, for the MCS, scenarios of forced shutdowns of the Generating Units (GU) will be generated, which directly influence the operation and, consequently, the availability of the HPP. The scenarios will be inserted into an operation optimization model, which considers the impact of forced shutdown samples on the MCS. The proposed modeling was applied using real data from the Santo Antônio HPP, which is one of the largest hydroelectric plants in Brazil.

Keywords: risk analysis; Availability Factor; forced shutdown; operation optimization; generating units (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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