Surrogate Models Applied to Optimized Organic Rankine Cycles

Icaro Figueiredo Vilasboas, Victor Gabriel Sousa Fagundes dos Santos, Armando Sá Ribeiro and Julio Augusto Mendes da Silva
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Icaro Figueiredo Vilasboas: Industrial Engineering Program (PEI), Federal University of Bahia, Salvador 40210-630, Brazil
Victor Gabriel Sousa Fagundes dos Santos: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering (DEEC), Federal University of Bahia, Salvador 40210-630, Brazil
Armando Sá Ribeiro: Department of Construction and Structures (DCE), Federal University of Bahia, Salvador 40210-630, Brazil
Julio Augusto Mendes da Silva: Department of Mechanical Engineering (DEM), Federal University of Bahia, Salvador 40210-630, Brazil

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 24, 1-16

Abstract: Global optimization of industrial plant configurations using organic Rankine cycles (ORC) to recover heat is becoming attractive nowadays. This kind of optimization requires structural and parametric decisions to be made; the number of variables is usually high, and some of them generate disruptive responses. Surrogate models can be developed to replace the main components of the complex models reducing the computational requirements. This paper aims to create, evaluate, and compare surrogates built to replace a complex thermodynamic-economic code used to indicate the specific cost (US$/kWe) and efficiency of optimized ORCs. The ORCs are optimized under different heat sources conditions in respect to their operational state, configuration, working fluid and thermal fluid, aiming at a minimal specific cost. The costs of 1449.05, 1045.24, and 638.80 US$/kWe and energy efficiencies of 11.1%, 10.9%, and 10.4% were found for 100, 1000, and 50,000 kWt of heat transfer rate at average temperature of 345 °C. The R-square varied from 0.96 to 0.99 while the number of results with error lower than 5% varied from 88% to 75% depending on the surrogate model (random forest or polynomial regression) and output (specific cost or efficiency). The computational time was reduced in more than 99.9% for all surrogates indicated.

Keywords: organic Rankine cycle; thermodynamic; economic; optimization; surrogate model; metamodel; heat recovery (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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