Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning

Ioannis Pappis, Andreas Sahlberg, Tewodros Walle, Oliver Broad, Elusiyan Eludoyin, Mark Howells and Will Usher
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Ioannis Pappis: Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvagen 68, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden
Andreas Sahlberg: Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvagen 68, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden
Tewodros Walle: Energy Center, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 385, Ethiopia
Oliver Broad: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
Elusiyan Eludoyin: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
Mark Howells: Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TT, UK
Will Usher: Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvagen 68, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 4, 1-36

Abstract: Ethiopia is a low-income country, with low electricity access (45%) and an inefficient power transmission network. The government aims to achieve universal access and become an electricity exporter in the region by 2025. This study provides an invaluable perspective on different aspects of Ethiopia’s energy transition, focusing on achieving universal access and covering the country’s electricity needs during 2015–2065. We co-developed and investigated three scenarios to examine the policy and technology levels available to the government to meet their national priorities. To conduct this analysis, we soft-linked OnSSET, a modelling tool used for geospatial analysis, with OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization modelling tool used for medium to long-run energy planning. Our results show that the country needs to diversify its power generation system to achieve universal access and cover its future electricity needs by increasing its overall carbon dioxide emissions and fully exploit hydropower. With the aim of achieving universal access by 2025, the newly electrified population is supplied primarily by the grid (65%), followed by stand-alone (32%) technologies. Similarly, until 2065, most of the electrified people by 2025 will continue to be grid-connected (99%). The country’s exports will increase to 17 TWh by 2065, up from 832 GWh in 2015, leading to a cumulative rise in electricity export revenues of 184 billion USD.

Keywords: energy planning; electricity demand scenarios; on-grid and off-grid technologies; OSeMOSYS; OnSSET; SDG7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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