Probabilistic and Risk-Informed Life Extension Assessment of Wind Turbine Structural Components

Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen, Lindsay Miller-Branovacki and Rupp Carriveau
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Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen: Department of the Built Environment, Aalborg University, Thomas Manns Vej 23, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark
Lindsay Miller-Branovacki: Environmental Energy Institute, University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Avenue, Windsor, ON N9B 3P4, Canada
Rupp Carriveau: Environmental Energy Institute, University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Avenue, Windsor, ON N9B 3P4, Canada

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: Reassessment of the fatigue life for wind turbine structural components is typically performed using deterministic methods with the same partial safety factors as used for the original design. However, in relation to life extension, the conditions are generally different from the assumptions used for calibration of partial safety factors; and using a deterministic assessment method with these partial safety factors might not lead to optimal decisions. In this paper, the deterministic assessment method is compared to probabilistic and risk-based approaches, and the economic feasibility is assessed for a case wind farm. Using the models also used for calibration of partial safety factors in IEC61400-1 ed. 4, it is found that the probabilistic assessment generally leads to longer additional fatigue life than the deterministic assessment method. The longer duration of the extended life can make life extension feasible in more situations. The risk-based model is applied to include the risk of failure directly in the economic feasibility assessment and it is found that the reliability can be much lower than the target for new turbines, without compromising the economic feasibility.

Keywords: life extension; wind turbines; end-of-life issues; probabilistic modeling; economic optimization; fatigue; risk; remaining useful life (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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