Sensitivity and Uncertainty of the FLORIS Model Applied on the Lillgrund Wind Farm

Maarten T. van Beek, Axelle Viré and Søren J. Andersen
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Maarten T. van Beek: Department of Wind Energy, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2629 HS Delft, The Netherlands
Axelle Viré: Department of Wind Energy, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2629 HS Delft, The Netherlands
Søren J. Andersen: Department of Wind Energy, Technological University of Denmark, 2800 Kgs. Lynbgy, Denmark

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-21

Abstract: Wind farms experience significant efficiency losses due to the aerodynamic interaction between turbines. A possible control technique to minimize these losses is yaw-based wake steering. This paper investigates the potential for improved performance of the Lillgrund wind farm through a detailed calibration of a low-fidelity engineering model aimed specifically at yaw-based wake steering. The importance of each model parameter is assessed through a sensitivity analysis. This work shows that the model is overparameterized as at least one model parameter can be excluded from the calibration. The performance of the calibrated model is tested through an uncertainty analysis, which showed that the model has a significant bias but low uncertainty when comparing the predicted wake losses with measured wake losses. The model is used to optimize the annual energy production of the Lillgrund wind farm by determining yaw angles for specific inflow conditions. A significant energy gain is found when the optimal yaw angles are calculated deterministically. However, the energy gain decreases drastically when uncertainty in input conditions is included. More robust yaw angles can be obtained when the input uncertainty is taken into account during the optimization, which yields an energy gain of approximately 3.4%.

Keywords: wind farm control; wake steering; Lillgrund; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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