Effect of Daily Forecasting Frequency on Rolling-Horizon-Based EMS Reducing Electrical Demand Uncertainty in Microgrids

Giuseppe La Tona, Maria Carmela Di Piazza and Massimiliano Luna
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Giuseppe La Tona: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Istituto di Ingegneria del Mare (INM), via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy
Maria Carmela Di Piazza: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Istituto di Ingegneria del Mare (INM), via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy
Massimiliano Luna: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Istituto di Ingegneria del Mare (INM), via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 6, 1-16

Abstract: Accurate forecasting is a crucial task for energy management systems (EMSs) used in microgrids. Despite forecasting models destined to EMSs having been largely investigated, the analysis of criteria for the practical execution of this task, in the framework of an energy management algorithm, has not been properly investigated yet. On such a basis, this paper aims at exploring the effect of daily forecasting frequency on the performance of rolling-horizon EMSs devised to reduce demand uncertainty in microgrids by adhering to a reference planned profile. Specifically, the performance of a sample EMS, where the forecasting task is committed to a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) artificial neural network (ANN), has been studied under different daily forecasting frequencies, revealing a representative trend relating the forecasting execution frequency in the EMS and the reduction of uncertainty in the electrical demand. On the basis of such a trend, it is possible to establish how often is convenient to repeat the forecasting task for obtaining increasing performance of the EMS. The obtained results have been generalized by extending the analysis to different test scenarios, whose results have been found coherent with the identified trend.

Keywords: energy management system; forecasting error; rolling horizon; demand uncertainty; microgrids (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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