Positive Correlations between Short-Term and Average Long-Term Fluctuations in Wind Power Output

Chiyori T. Urabe, Tetsuo Saitou, Kazuto Kataoka, Takashi Ikegami and Kazuhiko Ogimoto
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Chiyori T. Urabe: Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 1538505, Japan
Tetsuo Saitou: Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 1538505, Japan
Kazuto Kataoka: Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 1538505, Japan
Takashi Ikegami: Division of Advanced Mechanical Systems Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Tokyo 1848588, Japan
Kazuhiko Ogimoto: Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 1538505, Japan

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 7, 1-15

Abstract: Wind power has been increasingly deployed in the last decade to decarbonize the electricity sector. Wind power output changes intermittently depending on weather conditions. In electrical power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy sources, such as wind power, system operators aim to respond flexibly to fluctuations in output. Here, we investigated very short-term fluctuations, short-term fluctuations (STFs), and long-term fluctuations (LTFs) in wind power output by analyzing historical output data for two northern and one southern balancing areas in Japan. We found a relationship between STFs and the average LTFs. The percentiles of the STFs in each month are approximated by linear functions of the monthly average LTFs. Furthermore, the absolute value of the slope of this function decreases with wind power capacity in the balancing area. The LTFs reflect the trend in wind power output. The results indicate that the flexibility required for power systems can be estimated based on wind power predictions. This finding could facilitate the design of the balancing market in Japan.

Keywords: wind power; short-term fluctuations (STFs); long-term fluctuations (LTFs); flexibility; renewable energy; energy system integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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