It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

Sven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler, Johannes Pagenkopf, Özcan Deniz, Bent van den Adel, Kate Dooley and Malte Meinshausen
Additional contact information
Sven Teske: Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney (UTS), 235 Jones Street, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia
Thomas Pregger: Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Sonja Simon: Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Tobias Naegler: Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Johannes Pagenkopf: Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Özcan Deniz: Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Bent van den Adel: Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Kate Dooley: Australian–German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Malte Meinshausen: Australian–German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-25

Abstract: It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO 2 removal, estimated at ?377 Gt CO 2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models.

Keywords: climate change; Paris Agreement; 100% renewable energy; 1.5 °C mitigation pathway; energy transition; energy scenario; GHG mitigation; CO 2 emission; non-energy emission; open access book (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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