Effects of Occupants and Local Air Temperatures as Sources of Stochastic Uncertainty in District Energy System Modeling

Martín Mosteiro-Romero and Arno Schlueter
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Martín Mosteiro-Romero: Architecture and Building Systems, ETH Zurich, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 1, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
Arno Schlueter: Architecture and Building Systems, ETH Zurich, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 1, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-30

Abstract: Input uncertainty is one of the major obstacles urban building energy models (UBEM) must tackle. The aim of this paper was to quantify the effects of two of the main sources of stochastic uncertainty, namely building occupants and urban microclimate, on electrical and thermal supply system sizing at the district scale. In order to analyze the effects of the former, three different methods of occupant modeling were implemented in a UBEM. The effects of the urban heat island on system sizing were studied through the use of measured temperature data from a weather station in the case study district compared to measured data from a national weather station. The methods developed were used to assess the sizing and costs of centralized and decentralized technologies for a case study in central Zurich, Switzerland. The choice of occupant modeling approach was found to affect the district’s total annualized costs for space heating and cooling by ±5%, whereas for the costs of electricity the variation was ±8%. Regarding outdoor temperature, the effects on the heating demands proved be negligible, however the costs of the cooling alternatives were found to vary by about 4% at the district scale due to the effect of urban climate, for individual buildings this deviation was as high as 40%.

Keywords: energy simulation; urban energy system modeling; building occupant modeling; urban climate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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