Using Decomposition Analysis to Determine the Main Contributing Factors to Carbon Neutrality across Sectors

Hsing-Hsuan Chen, Andries F. Hof, Vassilis Daioglou, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Maarten van den Berg, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst and Detlef P. van Vuuren
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Hsing-Hsuan Chen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands
Andries F. Hof: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands
Vassilis Daioglou: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands
Harmen Sytze de Boer: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands
Oreane Y. Edelenbosch: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands
Maarten van den Berg: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands
Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands
Detlef P. van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands

Energies, 2021, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: This paper uses decomposition analysis to investigate the key contributions to changes in greenhouse gas emissions in different scenarios. We derive decomposition formulas for the three highest-emitting sectors: power generation, industry, and transportation (both passenger and freight). These formulas were applied to recently developed 1.5 °C emission scenarios by the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), emphasising the role of renewables and lifestyle changes. The decomposition analysis shows that carbon capture and storage (CCS), both from fossil fuel and bioenergy burning, renewables and reducing carbon intensity provide the largest contributions to emission reduction in the scenarios. Efficiency improvement is also critical, but part of the potential is already achieved in the Baseline scenario. The relative importance of different emission reduction drivers is similar in the OECD (characterised by relatively high per capita income levels and emissions) and non-OECD (characterised by relatively high carbon intensities of the economy) region, but there are some noteworthy differences. In the non-OECD region, improving efficiency in industry and transport and increasing the share of renewables in power generation are more important in reducing emissions than in the OECD region, while CCS in power generation and electrification of passenger transport are more important drivers in the OECD region.

Keywords: net-zero emission; decomposition analysis; mitigation; integrated assessment; shared socioeconomic pathways; climate change; Paris Agreement; scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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