Green Growth, Economic Development, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Evaluation Based on Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Models

Yu Sun, Mingxing Li, Hongzheng Sun, Shahida Kanwel, Mengjuan Zhang, Naila Erum and Abid Hussain
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Yu Sun: School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
Mingxing Li: School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
Hongzheng Sun: School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
Shahida Kanwel: Department of Tourism & Hotel Management, School of Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Mengjuan Zhang: School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
Naila Erum: IPFP Fellow, Department of Political Science, Rawalpindi Women University, Rawalpindi 46000, Pakistan
Abid Hussain: School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-23

Abstract: Economic development is mainly dependent on fossil fuels. The massive use of fossil fuels has led to changes in the climate environment, in which the deterioration of air quality has affected people’s daily lives. This paper introduces the green growth level as a control variable to explore the connection between carbon dioxide emissions and the level of economic growth. It uses the EKC algorithm and VEC model to analyze Nanjing city’s data from 1993 to 2018. Given the data availability, the ARIMA algorithm was used to project carbon emissions for 2019–2025. It is found that the EKC curve of Nanjing City shows an N-shape, and the growth of economic level will cause the enhancement of carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon emissions will reach 7,592,140 tons in 2025. At present, we are in an essential stage of transition from N-shape to inverted U-shape, and this paper makes several recommendations based on the findings.

Keywords: economic development level; carbon dioxide emissions; autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model; environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model; vector error correction (VEC) model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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