Evidential Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm-Based Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

Minli Wang, Peihong Wang and Tao Zhang
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Minli Wang: Key Laboratory of Energy Thermal Conversion and Control of Ministry of Education, School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Peihong Wang: Key Laboratory of Energy Thermal Conversion and Control of Ministry of Education, School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Tao Zhang: Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huaian 223003, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 11, 1-25

Abstract: The gradually increased penetration of photovoltaic (PV) power into electric power systems brings an urgent requirement for accurate and stable PV power forecasting methods. The existing forecasting methods are built to explore the function between weather data and power generation, which ignore the uncertainty of historical PV power. To manage the uncertainty in the forecasting process, a novel ensemble method, named the evidential extreme learning machine (EELM) algorithm, for deterministic and probabilistic PV power forecasting based on the extreme learning machine (ELM) and evidential regression, is proposed in this paper. The proposed EELM algorithm builds ELM models for each neighbor in the k-nearest neighbors initially, and subsequently integrates multiple models through an evidential discounting and combination process. The results can be accessed through forecasting outcomes from corresponding models of nearest neighbors and the mass function determined by the distance between the predicted point and neighbors. The proposed EELM algorithm is verified with the real data series of a rooftop PV plant in Macau. The deterministic forecasting results demonstrate that the proposed EELM algorithm exhibits 15.45% lower nRMSE than ELM. In addition, the forecasting prediction intervals obtain better performance in PICP and CWC than normal distribution.

Keywords: photovoltaic power forecasting; extreme learning machine; evidential regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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