Assessing the Impact of Features on Probabilistic Modeling of Photovoltaic Power Generation

Hiroki Yamamoto, Junji Kondoh and Daisuke Kodaira
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Hiroki Yamamoto: Department of Electrical Engineering, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, 2641 Yamazaki, Noda 278-8510, Chiba, Japan
Junji Kondoh: Department of Electrical Engineering, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, 2641 Yamazaki, Noda 278-8510, Chiba, Japan
Daisuke Kodaira: Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba 305-8573, Ibaraki, Japan

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 15, 1-17

Abstract: Photovoltaic power generation has high variability and uncertainty because it is affected by uncertain factors such as weather conditions. Therefore, probabilistic forecasting is useful for optimal operation and risk hedging in power systems with large amounts of photovoltaic power generation. However, deterministic forecasting is the mainstay of photovoltaic generation forecasting; there are few studies on probabilistic forecasting and feature selection from weather or time-oriented features in such forecasting. In this study, prediction intervals were generated by the lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) using neural networks with two outputs to make probabilistic modeling for predictions. The objective was to improve prediction interval coverage probability (PICP), mean prediction interval width (MPIW), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), and loss, which is the integration of PICP and MPIW, by removing unnecessary features through feature selection. When features with high gain were selected by random forest (RF), in the modeling of 14.7 kW PV systems, loss improved by 1.57 kW, CRPS by 0.03 kW, PICP by 0.057 kW, and MPIW by 0.12 kW on average over two weeks compared to the case where all features were used without feature selection. Therefore, the low gain features from RF act as noise and reduce the modeling accuracy.

Keywords: lower upper bound estimation; random forest; feature selection; probabilistic forecasting; photovoltaic generation forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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