A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on a Multi-Trait-Driven Methodology and Secondary Decomposition

Yixiang Ma, Lean Yu and Guoxing Zhang
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Yixiang Ma: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Lean Yu: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Guoxing Zhang: School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 16, 1-20

Abstract: To improve the prediction accuracy of short-term load series, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on a multi-trait-driven methodology and secondary decomposition. In detail, four steps were performed sequentially, i.e., data decomposition, secondary decomposition, individual prediction, and ensemble output, all of which were designed based on a multi-trait-driven methodology. In particular, the multi-period identification method and the judgment basis of secondary decomposition were designed to assist the construction of the hybrid model. In the numerical experiment, the short-term load data with 15 min intervals was collected as the research object. By analyzing the results of multi-step-ahead forecasting and the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test, the proposed hybrid model was proven to outperform all benchmark models, which can be regarded as an effective solution for short-term load forecasting.

Keywords: multi-trait-driven methodology; secondary decomposition; multiple periodicity patterns; hybrid model; energy forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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