Impact of PV/Wind Forecast Accuracy and National Transmission Grid Reinforcement on the Italian Electric System

Marco Pierro (), Fabio Romano Liolli, Damiano Gentili, Marcello Petitta, Richard Perez, David Moser and Cristina Cornaro
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Marco Pierro: Institute for Renewable Energy, EURAC Research, Viale Druso, 1, 39100 Bolzano, Italy
Fabio Romano Liolli: Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome, Italy
Damiano Gentili: Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome, Italy
Marcello Petitta: Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome, Italy
Richard Perez: Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12246, USA
David Moser: Institute for Renewable Energy, EURAC Research, Viale Druso, 1, 39100 Bolzano, Italy
Cristina Cornaro: Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome, Italy

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 23, 1-28

Abstract: The high share of PV energy requires greater system flexibility to address the increased demand/supply imbalance induced by the inherent intermittency and variability of the solar resource. In this work, we have developed a methodology to evaluate the margins for imbalance reduction and flexibility that can be achieved by advanced solar/wind forecasting and by strengthening the national transmission grid connecting the Italian market areas. To this end, for the forecasting of the day-ahead supply that should be provided by dispatchable generators, we developed three advanced load/PV/wind forecasting methodologies based on a chain or on the optimal mix of different forecasting techniques. We showed that, compared to the baseline forecast, there is a large margin for the imbalance/flexibility reduction: 60.3% for the imbalance and 47.5% for the flexibility requirement. In contrast, the TSO forecast leaves only a small margin to reduce the imbalance of the system through more accurate forecasts, while a larger reduction can be achieved by removing the grid constrains between market zones. Furthermore, we have applied the new forecasting methodologies to estimate the amount of imbalance volumes/costs/flexibility/overgenerations that could be achieved in the future according to the Italian RES generation targets, highlighting some critical issues related to high variable renewable energy share.

Keywords: PV/wind regional forecast; netload forecast; system flexibility; grid imbalance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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