Advanced Forecasting Methods of 5-Minute Power Generation in a PV System for Microgrid Operation Control

Paweł Piotrowski, Mirosław Parol, Piotr Kapler and Bartosz Fetliński
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Paweł Piotrowski: Institute of Electrical Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Koszykowa 75 Street, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland
Mirosław Parol: Institute of Electrical Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Koszykowa 75 Street, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland
Piotr Kapler: Institute of Electrical Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Koszykowa 75 Street, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland
Bartosz Fetliński: Institute of Microelectronics and Optoelectronics, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Koszykowa 75 Street, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-23

Abstract: This paper concerns very-short-term (5-Minute) forecasting of photovoltaic power generation. Developing the methods useful for this type of forecast is the main aim of this study. We prepared a comprehensive study based on fragmentary time series, including 4 full days, of 5 min power generation. This problem is particularly important to microgrids’ operation control, i.e., for the proper operation of small energy micro-systems. The forecasting of power generation by renewable energy sources on a very-short-term horizon, including PV systems, is very important, especially in the island mode of microgrids’ operation. Inaccurate forecasts can lead to the improper operation of microgrids or increasing costs/decreasing profits for microgrid operators. This paper presents a short description of the performance of photovoltaic systems, particularly the main environmental parameters, and a very detailed statistical analysis of data collected from four sample time series of power generation in an existing PV system, which was located on the roof of a building. Different forecasting methods, which can be employed for this type of forecast, and the choice of proper input data in these methods were the subject of special attention in this paper. Ten various prognostic methods (including hybrid and team methods) were tested. A new, proprietary forecasting method—a hybrid method using three independent MLP-type neural networks—was a unique technique devised by the authors of this paper. The forecasts achieved with the use of various methods are presented and discussed in detail. Additionally, a qualitative analysis of the forecasts, achieved using different measures of quality, was performed. Some of the presented prognostic models are, in our opinion, promising tools for practical use, e.g., for operation control in low-voltage microgrids. The most favorable forecasting methods for various sets of input variables were indicated, and practical conclusions regarding the problem under study were formulated. Thanks to the analysis of the utility of different forecasting methods for four analyzed, separate time series, the reliability of conclusions related to the recommended methods was significantly increased.

Keywords: microgrids; operation control; power generation; PV system; very-short-term forecasting; machine learning; interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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