Enhanced Machine-Learning Techniques for Medium-Term and Short-Term Electric-Load Forecasting in Smart Grids

Sajawal ur Rehman Khan, Israa Adil Hayder, Muhammad Asif Habib, Mudassar Ahmad, Syed Muhammad Mohsin, Farrukh Aslam Khan and Kainat Mustafa
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Sajawal ur Rehman Khan: Department of Computer Science, National Textile University, Faisalabad 37610, Pakistan
Israa Adil Hayder: Ministry of Education, General Directorate of Vocational Education, Department of Scientific Affairs, Baghdad 10053, Iraq
Muhammad Asif Habib: Department of Computer Science, National Textile University, Faisalabad 37610, Pakistan
Mudassar Ahmad: Department of Computer Science, National Textile University, Faisalabad 37610, Pakistan
Syed Muhammad Mohsin: Department of Computer Science, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad 45550, Pakistan
Farrukh Aslam Khan: Center of Excellence in Information Assurance (CoEIA), King Saud University, Riyadh 11653, Saudi Arabia
Kainat Mustafa: Department of Computer Science, Virtual University of Pakistan, Lahore 55150, Pakistan

Energies, 2022, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Nowadays, electric load forecasting through a data analytic approach has become one of the most active and emerging research areas. It provides future consumption patterns of electric load. Since there are large fluctuations in both electricity production and use, it is a difficult task to achieve a balance between electric load and demand. By analyzing past electric consumption records to estimate the upcoming electricity load, the issue of fluctuating behavior can be resolved. In this study, a framework for feature selection, extraction, and regression is put forward to carry out the electric load prediction. The feature selection phase uses a combination of extreme gradient boosting ( XGB ) and random forest ( RF ) to determine the significance of each feature. Redundant features in the feature extraction approach are removed by applying recursive feature elimination (RFE). We propose an enhanced support vector machine (ESVM) and an enhanced convolutional neural network (ECNN) for the regression component. Hyperparameters of both the proposed approaches are set using the random search (RS) technique. To illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed strategies, a comparison is also performed between the state-of-the-art approaches and our proposed techniques. In addition, we perform statistical analyses to prove the significance of our proposed approaches. Simulation findings illustrate that our proposed approaches ECNN and ESVM achieve higher accuracies of 98.83% and 98.7%, respectively.

Keywords: smart grid; feature extraction; feature selection; load forecasting; random forest; recursive feature eliminator; support vector machine; convolutional neural network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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