A System Dynamics Approach to Technological Learning Impact for the Cost Estimation of Solar Photovoltaics

Rong Wang (), Sandra Hasanefendic, Elizabeth Von Hauff and Bart Bossink
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Rong Wang: Breakthrough Technology Innovation Group, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Sandra Hasanefendic: Breakthrough Technology Innovation Group, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Elizabeth Von Hauff: Fraunhofer Institute for Organic Electronics, Electron Beam and Plasma Technology FEP, Winterbergstraße 28, D-01277 Dresden, Germany
Bart Bossink: Breakthrough Technology Innovation Group, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 24, 1-17

Abstract: Technological learning curve models have been continuously used to estimate the cost development of solar photovoltaics (PV) for climate mitigation targets over time. They can integrate several technical sources that influence the learning process. Yet, the accurate and realistic learning curve that reflects the cost estimations of PV development is still challenging to determine. To address this question, we develop four hypothetical-alternative learning curve models by proposing different combinations of technological learning sources, including both local and global technological experience and knowledge stock. We specifically adopt the system dynamics approach to focus on the non-linear relationship and dynamic interaction between the cost development and technological learning source. By applying this approach to Chinese PV systems, the results reveal that the suitability and accuracy of learning curve models for cost estimation are dependent on the development stages of PV systems. At each stage, different models exhibit different levels of closure in cost estimation. Furthermore, our analysis underscores the critical role of incorporating global technical sources into learning curve models.

Keywords: photovoltaic; system dynamics; technological learning; learning curve; technological experience; technological knowledge stock (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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