Decarbonization Analysis for Thermal Generation and Regionally Integrated Large-Scale Renewables Based on Minutely Optimal Dispatch with a Kentucky Case Study

Donovin D. Lewis, Aron Patrick, Evan S. Jones, Rosemary E. Alden, Abdullah Al Hadi, Malcolm D. McCulloch and Dan M. Ionel ()
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Donovin D. Lewis: SPARK Laboratory, ECE Department, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506, USA
Aron Patrick: PPL Corporation, Allentown, PA 18101, USA
Evan S. Jones: SPARK Laboratory, ECE Department, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506, USA
Rosemary E. Alden: SPARK Laboratory, ECE Department, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506, USA
Abdullah Al Hadi: SPARK Laboratory, ECE Department, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506, USA
Malcolm D. McCulloch: Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX13PJ, UK
Dan M. Ionel: SPARK Laboratory, ECE Department, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506, USA

Energies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 4, 1-23

Abstract: Decarbonization of existing electricity generation portfolios with large-scale renewable resources, such as wind and solar photo-voltaic (PV) facilities, is important for a transition to a sustainable energy future. This paper proposes an ultra-fast optimization method for economic dispatch of firm thermal generation using high granularity, one minute resolution load, wind, and solar PV data to more accurately capture the effects of variable renewable energy (VRE). Load-generation imbalance and operational cost are minimized in a multi-objective clustered economic dispatch problem with various generation portfolios, realistic generator flexibility, and increasing levels of VRE integration. The economic feasibility of thermal dispatch scenarios is evaluated through a proposed method of levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for clustered generation portfolios. Effective renewable economics is applied to assess resource adequacy, annual carbon emissions, renewable capacity factor, over generation, and cost to build between thermal dispatch scenarios with incremental increases in VRE penetration. Solar PV and wind generation temporally complement one another in the region studied, and the combination of the two is beneficial to renewable energy integration. Furthermore, replacing older coal units with cleaner and agile natural gas units increases renewable hosting capacity and provides further pathways to decarbonization. Minute-based chronological simulations enable the assessment of renewable effectiveness related to weather-related variability and of complementary technologies, including energy storage for which a sizing procedure is proposed. The generally applicable methods are regionally exemplified for Kentucky, USA, including eight scenarios with four major year-long simulated case studies and 176 subcases using high performance computing (HPC) systems.

Keywords: renewable energy; solar PV; wind energy; thermal generation; generation portfolio; decarbonization; optimal economic dispatch; electric power system adequacy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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