Optimal Operation of Combined Heat and Power System Based on Forecasted Energy Prices in Real-Time Markets

Chenghong Gu, Da Xie, Junbo Sun, Xitian Wang and Qian Ai
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Chenghong Gu: Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK
Da Xie: Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Junbo Sun: Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Xitian Wang: Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Qian Ai: Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China

Energies, 2015, vol. 8, issue 12, 1-16

Abstract: This paper develops a discrete operation optimization model for combined heat and powers (CHPs) in deregulated energy markets to maximize owners’ profits, where energy price forecasting is included. First, a single input and multi-output (SIMO) model for typical CHPs is established, considering the varying ratio between heat and electricity outputs at different loading levels. Then, the energy prices are forecasted with a gray forecasting model and revised in real-time based on the actual prices by using the least squares method. At last, a discrete optimization model and corresponding dynamic programming algorithm are developed to design the optimal operation strategies for CHPs in real-time. Based on the forecasted prices, the potential operating strategy which may produce the maximum profits is pre-developed. Dynamic modification is then conducted to adjust the pre-developed operating strategy after the actual prices are known. The proposed method is implemented on a 1 MW CHP on a typical day. Results show the optimized profits comply well with those derived from real-time prices after considering dynamic modification process.

Keywords: combined heat and power (CHP); discrete optimization; dynamic programming; price forecasting; real-time market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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