Metamodel for Efficient Estimation of Capacity-Fade Uncertainty in Li-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles

Jaewook Lee, Woosuk Sung and Joo-Ho Choi
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Jaewook Lee: School of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, Korea Aerospace University, Goyang 412-791, Korea
Woosuk Sung: Research and Development Division, Hyundai Motor Company, Hwaseong 445-706, Korea
Joo-Ho Choi: School of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, Korea Aerospace University, Goyang 412-791, Korea

Energies, 2015, vol. 8, issue 6, 1-17

Abstract: This paper presents an efficient method for estimating capacity-fade uncertainty in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in order to integrate them into the battery-management system (BMS) of electric vehicles, which requires simple and inexpensive computation for successful application. The study uses the pseudo-two-dimensional (P2D) electrochemical model, which simulates the battery state by solving a system of coupled nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). The model parameters that are responsible for electrode degradation are identified and estimated, based on battery data obtained from the charge cycles. The Bayesian approach, with parameters estimated by probability distributions, is employed to account for uncertainties arising in the model and battery data. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is used to draw samples from the distributions. The complex computations that solve a PDE system for each sample are avoided by employing a polynomial-based metamodel. As a result, the computational cost is reduced from 5.5 h to a few seconds, enabling the integration of the method into the vehicle BMS. Using this approach, the conservative bound of capacity fade can be determined for the vehicle in service, which represents the safety margin reflecting the uncertainty.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery; capacity fade; electrochemical model; battery management system; electric vehicles; uncertainty estimation; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; metamodel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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