A New Approach to Obtain Synthetic Wind Power Forecasts for Integration Studies

Jon Olauson, Johan Bladh, Joakim Lönnberg and Mikael Bergkvist
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Jon Olauson: Division of Electricity, Department of Engineering Sciences, Uppsala University, Box 534, 751 21 Uppsala, Sweden
Johan Bladh: Vattenfall, Evenemangsgatan 13, 169 92 Solna, Sweden
Joakim Lönnberg: Vattenfall, Evenemangsgatan 13, 169 92 Solna, Sweden
Mikael Bergkvist: Division of Electricity, Department of Engineering Sciences, Uppsala University, Box 534, 751 21 Uppsala, Sweden

Energies, 2016, vol. 9, issue 10, 1-16

Abstract: When performing wind integration studies, synthetic wind power forecasts are key elements. Historically, data from operational forecasting systems have been used sparsely, likely due to the high costs involved. Purely statistical methods for simulating wind power forecasts are more common,but have problems mimicking all relevant aspects of actual forecasts. Consequently, a new approach to obtain wind power forecasts for integration studies is proposed, relying on long time series of freely and globally available reforecasts. In order to produce synthetic forecasts with similar properties as operational ditto, some processing (noise addition and error reduction) is necessary. Validations with measurements from Belgium and Sweden show that the method is adequate; and distributions, correlations, autocorrelations and power spectral densities of forecast errors correspond well. Furthermore, abrupt changes when forecasts are updated and the existence of level and phase errors are reproduced. The in?uence from terrain complexity on error magnitude is promising, but more data is necessary for a proper validation.

Keywords: wind power forecasting; synthetic forecasts; global ensemble forecasting system (GEFS) reforecast; power system studies; wind power integration; production planning; dispatch (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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