A Long-Term Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasting System with Weather Adapted Correction

Yiqi Chu, Chengcai Li, Yefang Wang, Jing Li and Jian Li
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Yiqi Chu: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Chengcai Li: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Yefang Wang: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Jing Li: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Jian Li: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Energies, 2016, vol. 9, issue 11, 1-20

Abstract: Wind forecasting is critical in the wind power industry, yet forecasting errors often exist. In order to effectively correct the forecasting error, this study develops a weather adapted bias correction scheme on the basis of an average bias-correction method, which considers the deviation of estimated biases associated with the difference in weather type within each unit of the statistical sample. This method is tested by an ensemble forecasting system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This system provides high resolution wind speed deterministic forecasts using 40 members generated by initial perturbations and multi-physical schemes. The forecasting system outputs 28–52 h predictions with a temporal resolution of 15 min, and is evaluated against collocated anemometer towers observations at six wind fields located on the east coast of China. Results show that the information contained in weather types produces an improvement in the forecast bias correction.

Keywords: wind power; wind forecasting; statistical correction; weather classification; ensemble forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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