An Analysis Based on SD Model for Energy-Related CO 2 Mitigation in the Chinese Household Sector

Xingpeng Chen, Guokui Wang, Xiaojia Guo and Jinxiu Fu
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Xingpeng Chen: College of Earth and Environmental Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Guokui Wang: College of Earth and Environmental Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Xiaojia Guo: College of Geographical Science, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen 041004, China
Jinxiu Fu: Guangwumen Sub-District Office of the Chengguan District Government, Lanzhou 730000, China

Energies, 2016, vol. 9, issue 12, 1-18

Abstract: Reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions has become a global consensus in response to global warming and climate change, especially to China, the largest CO 2 emitter in the world. Most studies have focused on CO 2 emissions from the production sector, however, the household sector plays an important role in the total energy-related CO 2 emissions. This study formulates an integrated model based on logarithmic mean Divisia index methodology and a system dynamics model to dynamically simulate household energy consumption and CO 2 emissions under different conditions. Results show the following: (1) the integrated model performs well in calculating the contribution of influencing factors on household CO 2 emissions and analyzing the options for CO 2 emission mitigation; (2) the increase in income is the dominant driving force of household CO 2 emissions, and as a result of the improved standard of living in China a sustained increase in household CO 2 emissions can be expected; (3) with decreasing energy intensity, CO 2 emissions will decrease to 404.26 Mt-CO 2 in 2020, which is 9.84% lower than the emissions in 2014; (4) the reduction potential by developing non-fossil energy sources is limited, and raising the rate of urbanization cannot reduce the household CO 2 emission under the comprehensive influence of other factors.

Keywords: CO 2 emissions; household sector; system dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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