Solar Radiation Forecasting, Accounting for Daily Variability

Roberto Langella, Daniela Proto and Alfredo Testa
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Roberto Langella: Department of Industrial and Information Engineering, Second University of Naples via Roma n. 29, Aversa 81031, Italy
Daniela Proto: Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio, n. 21, Napoli 80125, Italy
Alfredo Testa: Department of Industrial and Information Engineering, Second University of Naples via Roma n. 29, Aversa 81031, Italy

Energies, 2016, vol. 9, issue 3, 1-17

Abstract: Radiation forecast accounting for daily and instantaneous variability was pursued by means of a new bi-parametric statistical model that builds on a model previously proposed by the same authors. The statistical model is developed with direct reference to the Liu-Jordan clear sky theoretical expression but is not bound by a specific clear sky model; it accounts separately for the mean daily variability and for the variation of solar irradiance during the day by means of two corrective parameters. This new proposal allows for a better understanding of the physical phenomena and improves the effectiveness of statistical characterization and subsequent simulation of the introduced parameters to generate a synthetic solar irradiance time series. Furthermore, the analysis of the experimental distributions of the two parameters’ data was developed, obtaining opportune fittings by means of parametric analytical distributions or mixtures of more than one distribution. Finally, the model was further improved toward the inclusion of weather prediction information in the solar irradiance forecasting stage, from the perspective of overcoming the limitations of purely statistical approaches and implementing a new tool in the frame of solar irradiance prediction accounting for weather predictions over different time horizons.

Keywords: solar radiation; solar irradiance; daily variability; instantaneous variability; statistical methods; parametric distributions; time series generation; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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