What Is Coming across the Horizon and How Can We Handle It? Bitcoin Scenarios as a Starting Point for Rigorous and Relevant Research

Horst Treiblmaier
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Horst Treiblmaier: School of International Management, Modul University Vienna, 1190 Vienna, Austria

Future Internet, 2022, vol. 14, issue 6, 1-15

Abstract: The disruptive impact of blockchain technologies can be felt across numerous industries as it threatens to disrupt existing business models and economic structures. To better understand this impact, academic researchers regularly apply well-established theories and methods. The vast majority of these approaches are based on multivariate methods that rely on average behavior and treat extreme cases as outliers. However, as recent history has shown, current developments in blockchain and cryptocurrencies are frequently characterized by aberrant behavior and unexpected events that shape individuals’ perceptions, market behavior, and public policymaking. In this paper, I apply various scenario tools to identify such extreme scenarios and illustrate their underlying structure as bundles of interdependent factors. Using the case of Bitcoin, I illustrate that the identification of extreme positive and negative scenarios is complex and heavily depends on underlying economic assumptions. I present three scenarios in which Bitcoin is characterized as a financial savior, as a severe threat to economic stability, or as a substitute to overcome several shortcomings of the existing financial system. The research questions that can be derived from these scenarios bridge behavioral and design science research and provide a fertile ground for impactful future research.

Keywords: blockchain; distributed ledger technology; scenario analysis; scenario planning; prediction; research design; contingency theory; Bitcoin; cryptocurrencies; digital transformation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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