Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China

Jibiao Zhou, Xinhua Mao, Yiting Wang, Minjie Zhang and Sheng Dong
Additional contact information
Jibiao Zhou: School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, China
Xinhua Mao: School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Yiting Wang: School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, China
Minjie Zhang: School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, China
Sheng Dong: School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, China

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 16, 1-28

Abstract: Urban Large-scale Public Spaces (ULPS) are important areas of urban culture and economic development, which are also places of the potential safety hazard. ULPS safety assessment has played a crucial role in the theory and practice of urban sustainable development. The primary objective of this study is to explore the interaction between ULPS safety risk and its influencing factors. In the first stage, an index sensitivity analysis method was applied to calculate and identify the safety risk assessment index system. Next, a Delphi method and information entropy method were also applied to collect and calculate the weight of risk assessment indicators. In the second stage, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) method with evidence fusion technique was utilized to analyze the interaction between the ULPS safety risk level and the multiple-index variables, measured by four observed performance indicators, i.e., environmental factor, human factor, equipment factor, and management factor. Finally, an empirical study of DST approach for ULPS safety performance analysis was presented.

Keywords: traffic safety; risk assessment; Dempster-Shafer theory; normal cloud model; index system; large-scale public spaces (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/16/2942/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/16/2942/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:16:p:2942-:d:258144

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().