Dynamical Analysis of Universal Masking on the Pandemic

Brandon Kaiheng Tay, Carvalho Andrea Roby, Jodi Wenjiang Wu and Da Yang Tan
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Brandon Kaiheng Tay: Science, Mathematics and Technology, Singapore University of Technology and Design, 8 Somapah Road, Singapore 487372, Singapore
Carvalho Andrea Roby: Science, Mathematics and Technology, Singapore University of Technology and Design, 8 Somapah Road, Singapore 487372, Singapore
Jodi Wenjiang Wu: Science, Mathematics and Technology, Singapore University of Technology and Design, 8 Somapah Road, Singapore 487372, Singapore
Da Yang Tan: Science, Mathematics and Technology, Singapore University of Technology and Design, 8 Somapah Road, Singapore 487372, Singapore

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 17, 1-11

Abstract: We investigate the impact of the delay in compulsory mask wearing on the spread of COVID-19 in the community, set in the Singapore context. By using modified SEIR-based compartmental models, we focus on macroscopic population-level analysis of the relationships between the delay in compulsory mask wearing and the maximum infection, through a series of scenario-based analysis. Our analysis suggests that collective masking can meaningfully reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in the community, but only if implemented within a critical time window of approximately before 80–100 days delay after the first infection is detected, coupled with strict enforcement to ensure compliance throughout the duration. We also identify a delay threshold of about 100 days that results in masking enforcement having little significant impact on the Maximum Infected Values. The results therefore highlight the necessity for rapid implementation of compulsory mask wearing to curb the spread of the pandemic.

Keywords: SEIR model; SEIS model; mask wearing; compartmental model; epidemic modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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