Non-Linear Effects of the Built Environment and Social Environment on Bus Use among Older Adults in China: An Application of the XGBoost Model

Lanjing Wang, Chunli Zhao, Xiaofei Liu, Xumei Chen, Chaoyang Li, Tao Wang, Jiani Wu and Yi Zhang
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Lanjing Wang: State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Chunli Zhao: Transport & Roads, Department of Technology and Society, Faculty of Engineering, Lund University, 221 00 Lund, Sweden
Xiaofei Liu: Key Laboratory of Advanced Public Transportation Science, China Academy of Transportation Sciences, MOT, Beijing 100029, China
Xumei Chen: Key Laboratory of Advanced Public Transportation Science, China Academy of Transportation Sciences, MOT, Beijing 100029, China
Chaoyang Li: State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Tao Wang: State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Jiani Wu: State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Yi Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 18, 1-22

Abstract: Global aging has raised increasing concerns on the health and well-being of older adults. Public transport is a viable option to improve the mobility and quality of life among older adults. However, policies that promote the public transport use among older adults are rare. This study utilizes the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) decision tree to explore the non-linear associations of the built and social environment with bus use among older adults in China. The bus use of older adults was obtained from the Zhongshan Household Travel Survey (ZHTS) in 2012. Results show that non-linear relationships exist among all built environment and social environment characteristics. Within certain thresholds, the percentage of green space land use, land use mixture, bus-stop density, and dwelling unit density are positively related to bus use among older adults. Likewise, one social environment variable, the proportion of older adults in a neighborhood, is the key social environment variable. Furthermore, the dwelling unit density and proportion of older adults appear to have an inverse U-shaped relationship. Additionally, age, ownership of motorcycles, and distance from home to the nearest bus stop also show non-linearity. The findings presented in this paper facilitate effective planning interventions to promote bus use among older adults.

Keywords: non-linear; built environment; social environment; bus use; older adults; XGBoost model; threshold effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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