The Impact of Mobility Restriction Strategies in the Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modelling the Relation between COVID-19 Health and Community Mobility Data

Adil Al Wahaibi, Amal Al Maani, Fatma Alyaquobi, Abdullah Al Manji, Khalid Al Harthy, Bader Al Rawahi, Abdullah Alqayoudhi, Sulien Al Khalili, Amina Al-Jardani and Seif Al-Abri
Additional contact information
Adil Al Wahaibi: Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 393, Muscat 113, Oman
Amal Al Maani: Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 393, Muscat 113, Oman
Fatma Alyaquobi: Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 393, Muscat 113, Oman
Abdullah Al Manji: Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 393, Muscat 113, Oman
Khalid Al Harthy: Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 393, Muscat 113, Oman
Bader Al Rawahi: Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 393, Muscat 113, Oman
Abdullah Alqayoudhi: Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 393, Muscat 113, Oman
Sulien Al Khalili: Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 393, Muscat 113, Oman
Amina Al-Jardani: Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 393, Muscat 113, Oman
Seif Al-Abri: Directorate General for Disease Surveillance and Control, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 393, Muscat 113, Oman

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 19, 1-10

Abstract: Background: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), particularly mobility restrictions, are mainstay measures for the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. We evaluated the effects of Oman’s mobility restriction strategies to highlight their efficacy in controlling the pandemic. Methods: Accessible national data of daily admissions and deaths were collected from 1 April 2020 to 22 May 2021. Google Community Mobility Report (CMR) data were downloaded for the same period. Among six CMR categories, three were used and reduced to one index—the community mobility index (CMI). We used a generalised linear model with a negative binomial distribution combined with a non-linear distributed lag model to investigate the short-term effects of CMI on the number of admitted PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, controlling for public holidays, day of the week, and Eid/Ramadan days. Results: We demonstrated the feasibility of using CMRs in the evaluation and monitoring of different NPIs, particularly those related to movement restriction. The best movement restriction strategy was a curfew from 7 p.m. to 5 a.m. (level 3 of CMI = 8), which had a total reduction of 35% (95% confidence interval (CI); 25–44%) in new COVID-19 admissions in the following two weeks, and a fatality reduction in the following four weeks by 52% (95% CI; 11–75%). Conclusion: Evening lockdown significantly affected the course of the pandemic in Oman which lines up with similar studies throughout the world.

Keywords: Oman; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; mobility restrictions; non-pharmaceutical interventions; pandemics; non-linear distributed lag model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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