Can Major Public Health Emergencies Affect Changes in International Oil Prices?

An Cheng, Tonghui Chen, Guogang Jiang and Xinru Han
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An Cheng: Wu Jinglian School of Economics, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China
Tonghui Chen: Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Guogang Jiang: Wu Jinglian School of Economics, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China
Xinru Han: Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 24, 1-13

Abstract: In order to deepen the understanding of the impact of major public health emergencies on the oil market and to enhance the risk response capability, this study analyzed the logical relationship between major public health emergencies and international oil price changes, identified the change points, and calculated the probability of abrupt changes to international oil prices. Based on monthly data during six major public health emergencies from 2009 to 2020, this study built a product partition model. The results show that only the influenza A (H1N1) and COVID-19 pandemics were significant reasons for abrupt changes in international oil prices. Furthermore, the wild poliovirus epidemic, the Ebola epidemic, the Zika epidemic, and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had limited effects. Overall, the outbreak of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in major global economies has a more pronounced impact on international oil prices.

Keywords: public health emergency of international concern; international oil price; COVID-19; US dollar index; product partition model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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