LEAP-Based Greenhouse Gases Emissions Peak and Low Carbon Pathways in China’s Tourist Industry

Dandan Liu, Dewei Yang and Anmin Huang
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Dandan Liu: College of Tourism, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou 362021, China
Dewei Yang: School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Anmin Huang: College of Tourism, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou 362021, China

IJERPH, 2021, vol. 18, issue 3, 1-15

Abstract: China has grown into the world’s largest tourist source market and its huge tourism activities and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are particularly becoming a concern in the context of global climate warming. To depict the trajectory of carbon emissions, a long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP)-Tourist model, consisting of two scenarios and four sub-scenarios, was established for observing and predicting tourism greenhouse gas peaks in China from 2017 to 2040. The results indicate that GHG emissions will peak at 1048.01 million-ton CO 2 equivalent (Mt CO 2e ) in 2033 under the integrated (INT) scenario. Compared with the business as usual (BAU) scenario, INT will save energy by 24.21% in 2040 and reduce energy intensity from 0.4979 tons of CO 2 equivalent/10 4 yuan (TCO 2e /10 4 yuan) to 0.3761 Tce/10 4 yuan. Although the INT scenario has achieved promising effects of energy saving and carbon reduction, the peak year 2033 in the tourist industry is still later than China’s expected peak year of 2030. This is due to the growth potential and moderate carbon control measures in the tourist industry. Thus, in order to keep the tourist industry in synchronization with China’s peak goals, more stringent measures are needed, e.g., the promotion of clean fuel shuttle buses, the encouragement of low carbon tours, the cancelation of disposable toiletries and the recycling of garbage resources. The results of this simulation study will help set GHG emission peak targets in the tourist industry and formulate a low carbon roadmap to guide carbon reduction actions in the field of GHG emissions with greater certainty.

Keywords: GHG peak; LEAP model; low carbon pathways; scenarios; tourist industry (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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