Crime and Building Rehabilitation or Demolition: A Dose-Response Analysis

Colette Smirniotis (), Michael Henderson, Barbara A. Bailey and Rose M. C. Kagawa
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Colette Smirniotis: Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California at Davis, Sacramento, CA 95817, USA
Michael Henderson: Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development, Jack, Joseph, and Morton Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA
Barbara A. Bailey: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
Rose M. C. Kagawa: Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California at Davis, Sacramento, CA 95817, USA

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 20, 1-19

Abstract: Thousands of buildings in Cleveland, Ohio were demolished or rehabilitated since the Great Recession in the 2000s. Recent evidence suggests removing vacant and decaying buildings reduces violent and firearm-involved crime. This study examines the dose-response relationship between demolitions, rehabilitations, and crime. We use Bayesian spatiotemporal models to estimate the association of interest for five types of crime outcomes: violent crimes, violent crimes involving a firearm, drug crimes, and crimes often associated with building vacancy. We estimate associations in quarterly time periods from 2012 through 2017 in 569 hexagons approximately the size of a neighborhood (2000 feet, approximately 610 m, in diameter), stratified by vacancy level. Across vacancy levels, the majority of our models do not identify statistically significant associations between demolition and rehabilitation dose and crime incidence. However, in some cases, we identify positive associations between demolition and crime. These associations generally appeared at higher levels of demolition (2 or 3 or more demolitions) in areas characterized by medium to high levels of vacancy. We also find that the presence of a property rehabilitation is associated with an increase in drug crimes in areas with medium levels of vacancy.

Keywords: crime; firearm violence; property demolition; property rehabilitation; spatiotemporal; Bayesian (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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