The Effects of Daily Temperature on Crime Events in Urban Hanoi, Vietnam Using Seven Years of Data (2013–2019)

Vu Thuy Huong Le, Jesse D. Berman, Quynh Anh Tran, Elizabeth V. Wattenberg and Bruce H. Alexander ()
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Vu Thuy Huong Le: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
Jesse D. Berman: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
Quynh Anh Tran: Department of Environmental Health, School of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam
Elizabeth V. Wattenberg: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
Bruce H. Alexander: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 21, 1-11

Abstract: The effects of temperature on behavior change and mental health have previously been explored, but the association between temperature and crime is less well understood, especially in developing countries. Single-city-level data were used to evaluate the association between the short-term effects of temperature on crime events in urban Hanoi, Vietnam. We used quasi-Poisson regression models to investigate the linear effects and distributed lag non-linear models to investigate the non-linear association between daily temperature and daily crime events from 2013 to 2019. There were 3884 crime events, including 1083 violent crimes and 2801 non-violent crimes during the 7-year study period. For both linear and non-linear effects, there were positive associations between an increase in daily temperature and crime, and the greatest effects were observed on the first day of exposure (lag 0). For linear effects, we estimated that each 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.9% (95%CI: 0.2; 20.5), 6.8% (95%CI: 0.6; 13.5), and 7.5% (95%CI: 2.3; 13.2) increase in the risk of violent, non-violent, and total crime, respectively. For non-linear effects, however, the crime risk plateaued at 30 °C and decreased at higher exposures, which presented an inverted U-shape response with a large statistical uncertainty.

Keywords: crime; climate change; temperature; hot weather; Vietnam; violent crime; violent behavior; developing countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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