Can a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Tax on Food also Be Healthy and Equitable? A Systemised Review and Modelling Study from Aotearoa New Zealand

Christine Cleghorn, Ingrid Mulder, Alex Macmillan, Anja Mizdrak, Jonathan Drew, Nhung Nghiem, Tony Blakely and Cliona Ni Mhurchu
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Christine Cleghorn: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand
Ingrid Mulder: Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin 9016, New Zealand
Alex Macmillan: Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin 9016, New Zealand
Anja Mizdrak: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand
Jonathan Drew: Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin 9016, New Zealand
Nhung Nghiem: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand
Tony Blakely: Population Interventions, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
Cliona Ni Mhurchu: National Institute for Health Innovation, University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 8, 1-15

Abstract: Policies to mitigate climate change are essential. The objective of this paper was to estimate the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) food taxes and assess whether such a tax could also have health benefits in Aotearoa NZ. We undertook a systemised review on GHG food taxes to inform four tax scenarios, including one combined with a subsidy. These scenarios were modelled to estimate lifetime impacts on quality-adjusted health years (QALY), health inequities by ethnicity, GHG emissions, health system costs and food costs to the individual. Twenty-eight modelling studies on food tax policies were identified. Taxes resulted in decreased consumption of the targeted foods (e.g., −15.4% in beef/ruminant consumption, N = 12 studies) and an average decrease of 8.3% in GHG emissions (N = 19 studies). The “GHG weighted tax on all foods” scenario had the largest health gains and costs savings (455,800 QALYs and NZD 8.8 billion), followed by the tax—fruit and vegetable subsidy scenario (410,400 QALYs and NZD 6.4 billion). All scenarios were associated with reduced GHG emissions and higher age standardised per capita QALYs for Māori. Applying taxes that target foods with high GHG emissions has the potential to be effective for reducing GHG emissions and to result in co-benefits for population health.

Keywords: GHG emissions; food taxes; nutritional epidemiology; review; simulation modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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