Analyzing Commute Mode Choice Using the LCNL Model in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Evidence from China

Siliang Luan, Qingfang Yang, Zhongtai Jiang, Huxing Zhou and Fanyun Meng
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Siliang Luan: School of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130015, China
Qingfang Yang: School of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130015, China
Zhongtai Jiang: School of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130015, China
Huxing Zhou: School of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130015, China
Fanyun Meng: School of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130015, China

IJERPH, 2022, vol. 19, issue 9, 1-26

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to gain an insight into commuting and travel mode choices in the post-COVID-19 era. The surveys are divided into two waves in Qingdao, China: the first-wave questionnaires were collected under the background of a three-month zero growth of cases; the second wave was implemented after the new confirmed cases of COVID-19. The latent class nested logit (LCNL) model is applied to capture heterogeneous characteristics among the various classes. The results indicate that age, income, household composition, and the frequency of use of travel modes are latent factors that impact users’ attitudes toward mass transit and the private car nests when undergoing the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Individuals’ trepidation regarding health risks began to fade, but this is still a vital consideration in terms of mode choice and the purchase of vehicles. Moreover, economic reinvigoration, the increase in car ownership, and an increase in the desire to purchase a car may result in great challenges for urban traffic networks.

Keywords: travel behavior; sustainable modes; COVID-19 pandemic; latent class nested logit model; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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