Modeling Study on Risk Identification in the Process of Anti-Crisis Enterprise Management

Grygoriy Shamborovskyi, Yuliia Nehoda, Nataliya Demidova, Volodymyr Tarashchenko and Svitlana Breus
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Grygoriy Shamborovskyi: Department of International Economic Relations, Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Sichovykh Striltsiv Street, 19, 79007 Lviv, Ukraine
Yuliia Nehoda: Department of Finance, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Heroiv Oborony Street 15, 03041 Kyiv, Ukraine
Nataliya Demidova: Department of Economics and Management, Federal State-Funded Educational Institution of Higher Education Don State Technical University, Shevchenko Street, 147, 346500 Shakhty, Russia
Volodymyr Tarashchenko: Department of Audit and Economic Analysis, University of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, Universytetska Street, 31, 08201 Irpin, Ukraine
Svitlana Breus: Department of Management and Public Administration, Kyiv National University of Technologies and Design, Nemyrovycha-Danchenka Street, 2, 01011 Kyiv, Ukraine

JRFM, 2021, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-14

Abstract: The study provides solutions for the scientific task related to the improvement of theoretical and development of methodological and applied principles, and the identification and evaluation of risks and threats as factors of anti-crisis management of the enterprises. Based on the developed concept of quantitative risk analysis, we constructed a fuzzy hierarchical model, which gives the possibility to get the estimates: risk factors; specific types of threats in the framework of a process; risk processes, identified in the anti-crisis management; and the integrative risk of anti-crisis management. Furthermore, the proposed model makes it possible to identify the threats that are the risks of the highest (catastrophe) layer. The fuzzy hierarchical model construction process includes the determination of linguistic variables, term-varieties, and universal sets for quantitative evaluation of figures and risks, the establishment of parameters of the membership functions for indicators and risks, the formation of fuzzy knowledge bases, the construction of a fuzzy hierarchical model in the MATLAB environment, the evaluation of adequacy of model based on the learning sample, the correction of a model, and the adoption of a resolution regarding its final variant. The use of the model in the anti-crisis enterprise management will provide the anti-crisis team with the possibility to give early warning of all negative factors, give their quantitative evaluation, and take them into account in the course of making managerial decisions.

Keywords: risk evaluation; hierarchical model; anti-crisis management; a zone of risks; economic security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C E F2 F3 G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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