A Slight Temperature Warming Trend Occurred over Lake Ontario from 2001 to 2018

Xiaoying Ouyang, Dongmei Chen, Shugui Zhou, Rui Zhang, Jinxin Yang, Guangcheng Hu, Youjun Dou and Qinhuo Liu
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Xiaoying Ouyang: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100101, China
Dongmei Chen: Department of Geography and Planning, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada
Shugui Zhou: The School of the Geo-Science & Technology, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Rui Zhang: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
Jinxin Yang: School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Guangcheng Hu: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100101, China
Youjun Dou: Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
Qinhuo Liu: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100101, China

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 12, 1-16

Abstract: Satellite-derived lake surface water temperature (LSWT) measurements can be used for monitoring purposes. However, analyses based on the LSWT of Lake Ontario and the surrounding land surface temperature (LST) are scarce in the current literature. First, we provide an evaluation of the commonly used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived LSWT/LST (MOD11A1 and MYD11A1) using in situ measurements near the area of where Lake Ontario, the St. Lawrence River and the Rideau Canal meet. The MODIS datasets agreed well with ground sites measurements from 2015–2017, with an R 2 consistently over 0.90. Among the different ground measurement sites, the best results were achieved for Hill Island, with a correlation of 0.99 and centered root mean square difference (RMSD) of 0.73 K for Aqua/MYD nighttime. The validated MODIS datasets were used to analyze the temperature trend over the study area from 2001 to 2018, through a linear regression method with a Mann–Kendall test. A slight warming trend was found, with 95% confidence over the ground sites from 2003 to 2012 for the MYD11A1-Night datasets. The warming trend for the whole region, including both the lake and the land, was about 0.17 K year −1 for the MYD11A1 datasets during 2003–2012, whereas it was about 0.06 K year −1 during 2003–2018. There was also a spatial pattern of warming, but the trend for the lake region was not obviously different from that of the land region. For the monthly trends, the warming trends for September and October from 2013 to 2018 are much more apparent than those of other months.

Keywords: Lake Ontario; Mann–Kendall (MK) test; MODIS; lake surface water temperature (LSWT); land surface temperature (LST); linear regression trend; validation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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