Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment and Future Predictions in the Matenchose Watershed, Rift Valley Basin, Using CA-Markov Simulation

Markos Mathewos (), Semaria Moga Lencha () and Misgena Tsegaye
Additional contact information
Markos Mathewos: Faculty of Biosystems and Water Resource Engineering, Institute of Technology, Hawassa University, Hawassa P.O. Box 05, Ethiopia
Semaria Moga Lencha: Faculty of Biosystems and Water Resource Engineering, Institute of Technology, Hawassa University, Hawassa P.O. Box 05, Ethiopia
Misgena Tsegaye: Faculty of Biosystems and Water Resource Engineering, Institute of Technology, Hawassa University, Hawassa P.O. Box 05, Ethiopia

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 10, 1-28

Abstract: Land use and land cover change (LULC) is known worldwide as a key factor of environmental modification that significantly affects natural resources. The aim of this study was to evaluate the dynamics of land use and land cover in the Matenchose watershed from the years 1991, 2003, and 2020, and future prediction of land use changes for 2050. Landsat TM for 1991, ETM+ for 2003, and Landsat-8 OLI were used for LULC classification for 2020. A supervised image sorting method exhausting a maximum likelihood classification system was used, with the application using ERDAS Imagine software. Depending on the classified LULC, the future LULC 2050 was predicted using CA-Markov and Land Change Models by considering the different drivers of LULC dynamics. The 1991 LULC data showed that the watershed was predominantly covered by grassland (35%), and the 2003 and 2020 LULC data showed that the watershed was predominantly covered by cultivated land (36% and 52%, respectively). The predicted results showed that cultivated land and settlement increased by 6.36% and 6.53%, respectively, while forestland and grassland decreased by 63.76% and 22.325, respectively, from 2020 to 2050. Conversion of other LULC categories to cultivated land was most detrimental to the increase in soil erosion, while forest and grassland were paramount in reducing soil loss. The concept that population expansion and relocation have led to an increase in agricultural land and forested areas was further reinforced by the findings of key informant interviews. This study result might help appropriate decision making and improve land use policies in land management options.

Keywords: land use; land cover; CA-Markov; Matenchose watershed; Rift Valley Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/10/1632/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/10/1632/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:10:p:1632-:d:922532

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().