Scenario Analysis of Renewable Energy Development and Carbon Emission in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Zhe Zhao, Xin Xuan, Fan Zhang (), Ying Cai and Xiaoyu Wang
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Zhe Zhao: School of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110136, China
Xin Xuan: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Fan Zhang: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Ying Cai: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Xiaoyu Wang: College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 10, 1-13

Abstract: The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) is a key area with large carbon emissions in China and a demonstration area for renewable energy development, facing the dual test of energy structure transformation and the achievement of carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study analyzes the main influencing factors of carbon emissions based on Kaya’s identity, establishes a socio-economic-energy-carbon emission coupled with system dynamics (SD) model, and designs five scenarios to predict and compare the future trends of energy consumption, renewable energy development and carbon emissions in BTH, respectively. The results show that (1) under the baseline scenario, energy carbon emissions in BTH will peak around 2034, and the intermediate development scenario, the transition development scenario and the sustainable development scenario all show that the region can achieve the emission peak target around 2030. (2) The renewable energy output value of BTH will reach CNY 486.46 billion in 2050 under the baseline scenario, and the share of renewable energy consumption will exceed 50% under the sustainable development scenario. (3) Increasing energy tax regulation and scientific and technological investment and adopting more stringent policy constraints can guarantee the lowest emission intensity while maintaining the current social and economic development level. This study predicts the development of a renewable energy industry and carbon emissions in BTH under different scenarios and provides policy recommendations for the future energy transition in the region.

Keywords: system dynamics model; Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region; renewable energy; carbon emissions; scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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