Predicting Rural Ecological Space Boundaries in the Urban Fringe Area Based on Bayesian Network: A Case Study in Nanjing, China

Yangyang Yuan, Yuchen Yang, Ruijun Wang and Yuning Cheng ()
Additional contact information
Yangyang Yuan: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Yuchen Yang: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Ruijun Wang: College of Architecture and Art, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601, China
Yuning Cheng: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-24

Abstract: Urban fringe areas are locations that compete between urban development and ecological protection; their ecological spatial boundaries face the risk of erosion and degradation. Previous studies have so far focused on the core area inside the ecological space. However, research on the ecological boundary zone has so far been insufficient. The delineation of ECR is based on large-scale administrative units, while it is less precise at the level of small-scale rural areas. This study selected Paifang village in Nanjing City as the study area and built a Bayesian network model to predict the ecological space boundary for 2030. The study also identified the driving factors and their mechanisms affecting the changes in the rural ecological space in an urban fringe area and put forward targeted suggestions for its protection. The results suggested that: (1) The ecological space of Paifang village will expand in 2030. Specifically, agricultural land has the greatest potential for restoration of ecological space, followed by shrubland and grassland, and water bodies and their surrounding areas are potentially shrinking ecological space. (2) Artificial construction activities will disturb the ecological space, with the change in agricultural land being the main factor affecting the change in the ecological space boundary. (3) The Ecological Conservation Redline has a significant effect on the protection of the rural ecological space. The results of this study can provide a reference for rural planning and the formulation of protection policies in urban fringe areas.

Keywords: urban fringe area; boundary prediction; Bayesian network; ecological space; Ecological Conservation Redline (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/11/1886/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/11/1886/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:11:p:1886-:d:952063

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().