Valuation of Land-Use/Land-Cover-Based Ecosystem Services in Afghanistan—An Assessment of the Past and Future

Omaid Najmuddin (), Zhihui Li (), Rabnawaz Khan and Weiqing Zhuang
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Omaid Najmuddin: School of Internet Economics and Business, Fujian University of Technology, No. 3, Xueyuan Road, University Town, Fuzhou 350118, China
Zhihui Li: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Rabnawaz Khan: School of Internet Economics and Business, Fujian University of Technology, No. 3, Xueyuan Road, University Town, Fuzhou 350118, China
Weiqing Zhuang: School of Internet Economics and Business, Fujian University of Technology, No. 3, Xueyuan Road, University Town, Fuzhou 350118, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-32

Abstract: Being one of the weakest economies in the world, livelihoods in Afghanistan remain highly dependent on local ecosystem services. However, the risk of ecosystem services degradation in Afghanistan over the past two decades has significantly increased, mainly due to rapid changes in land-use and land-cover (LULC). As such, policy makers must be able to estimate the impact of LULC changes on various ecosystem services. By utilizing GlobeLand30 land cover products for 2000, 2010 and 2020, and by adopting the value transfer method, this study assessed the ecosystem services value (ESV) changes in response to the changes of LULC in Afghanistan. Additionally, the dynamics of the land system (DLS) model was innovatively coupled with linear programming to predict likely scenarios of ESV changes by 2030. The predicted results were also validated against actual land cover and achieved a Kappa value of 0.78. The results showed that over the 20-year period, ecologically important LULC categories such as forest, water bodies and grassland were severely unstable and rapidly decreasing in scope. These LULC types were being threatened by agricultural, built-up and unused lands. During this period, we estimated a decrease in the total ESV from 161 billion USD in 2000 to 152.27 billion USD in 2020. About 92% of this decrease was shared by supporting and provisioning services. The simulated scenarios also showed that ESV will likely further decrease under Business-As-Usual (BAU), and Rapid Economic Development (RED) scenarios. Positively, an Environmental Protection (ENP) scenario is predicted, with a 4.5% increase in ESV by 2030. However, achieving this scenario requires the enforcement of strict environmental protection measures.

Keywords: ecosystem services value; value coefficient; DLS; scenario analysis; land use change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:11:p:1906-:d:954096

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