Scenario Analysis of Livestock Carrying Capacity Risk in Farmland from the Perspective of Planting and Breeding Balance in Northeast China

Zhe Zhao, Xiangzheng Deng, Fan Zhang, Zhihui Li, Wenjiao Shi, Zhigang Sun and Xuezhen Zhang
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Zhe Zhao: School of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110136, China
Xiangzheng Deng: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Fan Zhang: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Zhihui Li: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Wenjiao Shi: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Zhigang Sun: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Xuezhen Zhang: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 3, 1-13

Abstract: In this paper, we selected the northeast region as a study area from the perspective of soil nutrient demand, calculated the livestock carrying capacity of farmland under three scenarios where nitrogen nutrient accounts for 35% (low level), 45% (medium level), and 55% (high level) of fertilization, and carried out a risk analysis. The results show that the scale of husbandry breeding is expanding and the scale of the planting industry has remained basically unchanged. Under the three scenarios, there were 23 regions where the livestock manure exceeded the maximum value that could be absorbed by farmland in 2008 and 28 regions in 2019. These regions in the potential area are mostly located in Heilongjiang province and the regions in the restricted area are mostly located in Liaoning Province. On the whole, the northeast region is generally faced with the problem of livestock overloading, and the insufficient utilization and treatment capacity of livestock manure poses a huge threat to regional ecological security. Based on this, adjusting the structure of regional planting and breeding, promoting the development of the livestock manure processing industry, enhancing the production capacity of organic fertilizer, and constructing an integrated pattern of regional planting and breeding are effective ways to realize the sustainable utilization of farmland in northeast China.

Keywords: livestock carrying capacity risk; planting and breeding balance; northeast China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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